Computers will have developed “common sense” within a decade and we could be counting them among our friends not long afterwards, one of the world’s leading AI scientists has predicted.
As someone with a long time passion for Artificial Intelligence, I get very nervous when the popular press (in this case, The Guardian newspaper) present this kind of prediction.
Early AI pioneers made lots of predictions about the possibility of human-like AI being widespread by the turn of the century. Sadly, there were many disappointments along the way which caused a slow-down in progress and drying up of funding.
So much so that even the name “Artificial Intelligence” was discredited and researchers started using other terms, such as Machine Learning, Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence to distance themselves from it.
It looks today like significant progress has been made in specific domains, using Artificial Narrow Intelligence. Impressive examples such as Google’s autonomous car cannot be relied on to give an indication of future progress. It’s not at all clear how such machine learning techniques can be developed to have broader application, to create an Artificial General Intelligence.
We must be careful that AI doesn’t over-promise and under-deliver that leads to another Artificial Intelligence Winter.