Robotics and AI could threaten up to 35% of jobs in UK

Who’ll be going to work in 20 years?

(Photo: William Murphy on Flickr. Licensed under Creative Commons.)

A new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch has added to the recent spate of analysis predicting a massive impact on work and jobs by robotics and artificial intelligence (as reported in the Guardian).

They estimate that up to 35% of all jobs in the UK (47% in the US) are at risk of displacement by technology within 20 years. This is going to cause a huge shift in the type of work that people can expect to do in the future. It has important implications for education policy, jobs and economic growth. In addition, it is incumbent on politicians and policy makers to ensure that the benefits from increased automation are widely distributed.

A common counter point made is that by eliminating some jobs, technology creates other jobs. However, the authors note:

“The trend is worrisome in markets like the US because many of the jobs created in recent years are low-paying, manual or services jobs which are generally considered ‘high risk’ for replacement,” the bank says.

While 20 years may seem like far into the future, children born this year will just be entering the workforce then. They may be faced with not having any jobs to look forward to.

via Robot revolution: rise of ‘thinking’ machines could exacerbate inequality | Technology | The Guardian.

[Video] The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence

Professor Stuart Russell is a long term researcher into Artificial Intelligence and wrote (along with Peter Norvig) a widely used undergraduate text called “Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach”. Last month he delivered this excellent lecture at The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. He makes very good arguments that although sentient AI may be far in the future, it is worth considering the ethical possibilities as soon as possible.

It’s quite a long video, but worth the time to watch through.

[Note the sound quality is poor for the first several minutes but is clear thereafter.]

The Artificial Intelligence “Menace”

There has been a flurry of comment recently related to the supposed growing menace of Artificial Intelligence.

Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Bill Gates and most recently, Steve Wozniak have all sounded warnings about computers taking over and artificial intelligences plotting to get rid of us.

What’s caused the sudden volume of opinion on this? Perhaps it is the apparent success of highly visible projects like Google’s self driving cars promising reduced risk transport? After all, if an Artificial Intelligence is capable of driving itself around, how long before it can do other things that traditionally would need human level intelligence?

Viewpoints like these are good for generating lots of comment, but the reality is somewhat more mundane. The AI in Google’s car isn’t a single entity but is rather a collection of different techniques and algorithms. As such, it doesn’t behave like a general intelligence, but is specific to that domain. This has been the case for as long as researchers have been looking at AI: it’s brittle.

Nevertheless, AI techniques are indeed spreading into new spheres of life all the time. So the societal impact will be profound. But can we please discuss this without resorting to fear and hyperbole.

Have a look at the videos on IGN and judge for yourself.